En unik social investering – slutrapport om det sociala utfallskontraktet i Norrköping

Sweden’s first Social Impact Bond (SIB) or, as preferred, Social Outcomes Contract (SOC), was a collaborative project between Norrköping local authority and private social investor Leksell Social Ventures (LSV) supported by the Swedish Association of Local Authorities and Regions (Mission Mental Health) and Lumell Associates. The aim was to address a social challenge – improving outcomes for youth and children placed in institutional care. After an intense period of feasibility studies and contracting negotiations, the SOC became operational in August 2016. Active work with the target group continued until first quarter 2019 and the evaluation phase was completed in February 2021. This report presents the results in terms of achieved outcomes as well as a broader perspective of learnings, for Norrköping and for the general development of social investment in Sweden. The SOC should be considered a form of social investment, where an initial cost leads to longer term social and economic benefits to society. There are many examples of social investments in Sweden where local authorities have reserved internal funding in so-called social investment funds. The Norrköping SOC was the first Swedish example of a social investment case where a private investor provided a loan to the local authority for upfront funding together with a risk sharing model connected to achieved outcomes. Norrköping and LSV agreed in the SOC that LSV would provide up to 10 million SEK (~1 MEUR) for the project. The associated risk sharing model was such that Norrköping would guarantee 40 % repayment on activity while the outstanding 60 % would be repaid if cost savings in social services would be achieved. Each SEK saved in social service costs would be divided between the parts corresponding to their financial risk (60/40) up to project break even. If the savings would be larger than project costs, LSV would be allowed a total ROI capped at 20 % conditional on improved school outcomes for the target group. The evaluation period was 24 months per individual in the target group and compared with a historic reference group. If the target group individual has lower costs over the evaluation period than its comparison group average, then this provides a positive net saving. If an individual improves when it comes to school performance over 24 months, a positive value is registered, if not, a negative value. Values are assigned from -3 to +3 following an ad hoc model designed for this project (to take into account the wide age span and different educational settings for the target group). Norrköping decided it to be outside legal scope to create a historic comparison group for school performance. Net results for costs and school performance are added for the target group and thus establishing contract outcomes. In addition to primary outcomes, the project was also monitoring mental wellbeing, substance abuse, supporting relations with family and social network and achievement of individual goals. Having a 24-month evaluation period (from when the intervention starts) turned out to be challenging with costs increasing with 7,5 million SEK. However, school performance and social outcomes were all positive. Data suggested that over time, net costs were decreasing, and the project partners agreed to extend the monitoring period to 36 months, but to do this outside of the contract. Over 36 months, the evaluation indicates reduced social service costs of 4 million SEK. The project cost is 7.5 million SEK leading to a net result of -3.5 million SEK. The result is distributed between parts so that Norrköping ends with +1 million and LSV with -4.5 million SEK. In summary, the contract did not perform in the sense that LSV was not eligible to be repaid more than the 40 % guarantee. But from a project and target group perspective, the results are quite positive, both in terms of social and school outcomes and in terms of the extended period cost savings. It can also be noticed that several hypothetically positive outcomes for the target group and for society are not included in the evaluation model. All in all, the SOC should be considered a successful social investment.

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