A Meteorological Analysis of the 2013 Alberta Flood: Antecendent Large-Scale Flow Pattern and Synoptic-Dynamic Characteristics
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The 19–21 June 2013 Alberta flood was the costliest (CAD $6 billion) natural disaster in Canadian history. The flood was caused by a combination of above-normal spring snowmelt in the Canadian Rockies, large antecedent precipitation, and an extreme rainfall event on 19–21 June that produced rainfall totals of 76 mm in Calgary and 91 mm in the foothills. As is typical of flash floods along the Front Range of the Rocky Mountains, rapidly rising streamflow proceeded to move downhill (eastward) into Calgary.\nA meteorological analysis traces an antecedent Rossby wave train across the North Pacific Ocean, starting with intense baroclinic development over East Asia on 11 June. Subsequently, downstream Rossby wave development occurred across the North Pacific; a 1032-hPa subtropical anticyclone located northeast of Hawaii initiated a southerly atmospheric river into Alaska, which contributed to the development of a cutoff anticyclone over Alaska and a Rex block (ridge to the north, cyclone to the south) in the northeastern North Pacific. Upon breakdown of the Rex block, lee cyclogenesis occurred in Montana and strong easterly upslope flow was initiated in southern Alberta.\nThe extreme rainfall event was produced in association with a combination of quasigeostrophically and orographically forced ascent, which acted to release conditional and convective instability. As in past Front Range flash floods, moisture flux convergence and positive ᶿe advection were collocated with the heavy rainfall. Backward trajectories show that air parcels originated in the northern U.S. plains, suggesting that evapotranspiration from the local land surface may have acted as a moisture source.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".