A Notable Autumn Arrival of Reverse-migrants in Southern Nova Scotia
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Unprecedented numbers of apparent reverse-migrant and vagrant southern birds arrived the afternoon of 11 October 1998 in southernmost Nova Scotia.Their relative abundances were largely predicted by numbers of tower kills recorded during the fall season from 1955 to 1980 in northeastern Florida, as well as by the number of each species present in Nova Scotia just prior to the 1998 fallout.Among species that were unusually common or scarce relative to the northwestern Florida records, excessively large numbers of Scarlet Tanagers, Blue Grosbeaks, and Indigo Buntings diminished sharply soon after arrival and evidently reappeared in coastal Massachusetts.The many vireos and warblers lingered, and did not later appear in numbers further south.Weather patterns suggest that the birds departed coastal southeastern United States the evening of 9 October, following a stalled cold front that began to move rapidly offshore.Evidently some birds reached a southwesterly flow beyond the front and were carried (and probably flew downwind) to the east side of a deepening low south of Nova Scotia.This then propelled them on easterly gales to a small stretch of coast and islands at the southern extremity of the province.INTRODUCTION: THE EVENT On 11 October 1998, Nova Scotia was experiencing what locals casually refer to as "weather"--gale-to-storm-force easterlies, with driving rain.In late afternoon, Maybank, who then maintained the Nova Scotia Bird Society Bird Information Line, received a phone call from Rina Nichols, supervisor of the Atlantic Bird Observatory's banding station on Bon Portage (Outer) Island (Fig. 1).She excitedly described how, during a just-completed 1.5-hour walking census on the island, observers had tallied 62 Indigo Buntings and 10 Scarlet Tanagers, and many more in the general area.Although such numbers were unprecedented, both species are regular here in late autumn and neither would require a rare bird alert.However, it was tempting to speculate what other species might be around.Maybank's musings were cut short by a phone call from Murray Newell, a tireless birder on Cape Sable Island at the southern extreme of the province (Fig. 1).Newell could not restrain his jubilation as he reported waves of birds coming in from the sea and hitting the coast at Dan'ls Head (Fig. 1) in the late afternoon.Many birds took shelter in stacked lobster traps, and in one confined area Newell and John Nickerson had encountered four Hooded Warblers, a Worm-eating Warbler, and "many" Indigo Buntings, as well as a few Blue Grosbeaks.This was clearly a major event.Although many other birders .hadfamilly commitments the next day, Canadian Thanksgiving, Maybank drove to Cape Sable Island and met Murray Newell at dawn.The weather was still inclement, with northwest gales, overcast skies, and low temperatures, but the rain had halted.They headed first for the site of the previous evening's event and managed to coax two Hooded Warblers from the lobster traps.Following a hunch that more species might be found •n nearby sheltered areas of vegetation in the region known as The Hawk (Fig. 1), they investigated further and found Indigo Buntings everywhere, including a single flock with more than 100 birds There were several Blue Grosbeaks and Baltimore Orioles, and warblers and vireos flitted in the alders and spruces, among them a White-eyed Vireo and a Yellow-throated Vireo.Then, in a small hollow sheltered from the gales were four additional White-eyed Vireos, a s•ght heretofore never reported in Atlantic Canada.Among numerous American Redstarts, Northern Parulas, and Black-and-white Warblers, there were an adult male Prothonotary Warbler, two Scarlet Tanagers, and both cuckoos.By this time Newell had to depart, leaving Maybank to savor another adult male Hooded Warbler, another Yellow-throated Vireo, a male Blue-w•nged Warbler, a female Summer Tanager, and a female Western Tanager Curious to learn if the fallout had also occurred on neighbonng peninsulas with a similar east-facing exposure, Maybank headed northeast to Baccaro Point (Fig. 1), where in less than an hour he located a second Prothonotary Warbler, another Yellow-throated Vireo, and 10 Indigo Buntings.Blanche Peninsula (Fig. 1) was next, where he remained until dusk.Memorable sights there also included two Blue-winged Warblers, one White-eyed Vireo, and a Goldenwinged Warbler in a single bush.Other Blanche highlights included a male Hooded Warbler, a Yellow-throated Vireo, and 70 In&go Buntings, as well as an immature Harris's Sparrow that might have arrived with an influx a few days earlier of White-crowned Sparrows, which were still present.Other observers made further discoveries, but Maybank alone recorded 27 individuals of nine species that would normally be Fig.Seal I. Ca• Sable I. • '• 'The Hawk
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.003 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".