Recent evolution of rainfall extremes in Niger (1950-2014)
Bibliographic record
Abstract
West Africa is the region of the world with the highest recent rainfall deficit.Niger, one of the poorest countries in the world, is highly dependent on rainfall variations in the context of global warming, the consequences of which seem to be unfavorable in the coming decades.Based on the daily rainfall data of 37 Nigerien stations, this article analyzes the evolution of precipitation through eleven indices between 1950 and 2014.After a severe drought of three decades which is individualized from 1968 to 1997, it appears that if a return at subnormal annual average rainfall is observed since 1998, this is not the case for other vital indices for the rural world, depending on the good distribution of rainfall during the rainy season.Indeed, the consecutive dry days have increased and the consecutive wet days have been reduced.The same goes for rainy days.At the same time, the proportion of daily maximum precipitation in the total annual rainfall has increased over time and the proportion of intense rainfall in the annual rainfall totals has increased significantly in the last two decades.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".