Bayesian approaches to trajectory estimation in maritime surveillance
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
In maritime surveillance, multi-sensor data differ to a great extent in their temporal resolution. Additionally, due to multi-level security and information management processing, many contact reports arrive hours after observations. This makes the contact report data usually available for batch processing. The dissimilar multi-source information environment results in contact reports with heteroscedastic and correlated errors (i.e. measurement errors characterized by normal probability distributions with non-constant and non-diagonal covariance matrices), while the obtained measurement errors may be relatively large. Hence, the appropriate choice of a trajectory estimation algorithm, which addresses the aforementioned issues of the surveillance data, will significantly contribute to increased awareness in the maritime domain. This thesis presents two novel batch single ship trajectory estimation algorithms employing Bayesian approaches to estimation: (1) a stochastic linear filtering algorithm and (2) a curve fitting algorithm which employs Bayesian statistical inference for nonparametric regression. The stochastic linear filtering algorithm employs a combination of two stochastic processes, namely the Integrated Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process (IOU) and the random walk (RW), process to describe the ship's motion. The assumptions on linear modeling and bivariate Gaussian distribution of measurement errors allow for the use of Kalman filtering and Rauch-Tung-Striebel optimal smoothing. In the curve fitting algorithm, the trajectory is considered to be in the form of a cubic spline with an unknown number of knots in two-dimensional Euclidean plane of longitude and latitude. The function estimate is determined from the data which are assumed Gaussian distributed. A fully Bayesian approach is adopted by defining the prior distributions on all unknown parameters: the spline coefficients, the number and the locations of knots. The calculation of the p
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.002 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it