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Record W7008608533

The Changing Seasons: Warm Winds

2002· article· en· W7008608533 on OpenAlexaboutno aff

Bibliographic record

VenueDigital Commons - University of South Florida (University of South Florida) · 2002
Typearticle
Languageen
FieldEnvironmental Science
TopicScience and Climate Studies
Canadian institutionsnot available
Fundersnot available
KeywordsAtmosphere (unit)Field (mathematics)Context (archaeology)Term (time)
DOInot available

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

A balmy fallIt's rare in a season to hear such unanimity from across the temperate reporting regions: from virtually all quarters comes word that warm weather ruled most of the continent north of Mexico almost through November's end, and in many regions, a marked lack of typical cold fronts meant few fallouts or concentrations of migrants over much of the season.Even from off-continent reporting areas, such as Bermuda, the paucity of cold fronts was noted as having substantially reduced the number and diversity of migrants.Despite the late arrivals and lower numbers of migrants in many regions, there was also near-consensus that the season was a very good one for vagrants, virtually everywhere.From Alaska and the Pacific Northwest to the Rockies and Great Plains and Prairie Provinces, through eastern Canada and the northeasterstates--and south through Appalachia, the Southern Great Plains, the Southern Atlantic and Gulf Coasts--the fall season was again unusually warm, with below-average precipitation over much of the continent.The combination of high temperatures and little rain led to near-drought conditions over much of the eastern two-thirds of North America, with notable exceptions.In Ontario, rains in late August and September alleviated dry conditions somewhat; light rains fell then from New York south to Virginia but did little to change bone-dry impoundments: Bombay Hook and Chincoteague refuges had very little habitat for shorebirds, while Conejohela Flats in eastern Pennsylvania produced 27 species.In the drying Upper St. Lawrence River area, mudflats were exposed; but, as in the eastern Great Lakes, the anticipated flocks of shorebirds never materialized.Editors Denault, Bannon, Aubry, and David speculate that the birds might have simply been less concentrated on migration this year.Similar conditions in New England produced excellent shorebirding on Lake Champlain, while Robert Leberman reports that "low water levels and extensive mudflats at many lakes and reservoirs [... ] translated into more than the usual number of interesting shorebird sightings" in Appalachia.Florida's drought situation continued, despite showers from tropical systems.Wisconsin reported above-average rainfall, but only from August, while to the south, the eastern prairies of the Midwest had much rain from August through mid-October.In Missouri, as elsewhere in the western parts of the Middlewestern Prairie Region, habitat for shorebirds and waterfowl dried up, but eastern Indiana had the opposite problem, with the best spots flooded out.A "deluge" hit western Tennessee in late November, but otherwise the Bob and Lucy Duncan note"unremarkable" weather in the Central Southern Region.Texas, in contrast to areas to the east, witnessed heavy rains fuelled by Pacific fronts' clashes with Gulf moisture, at least in the eastern part of the state; West Texas suffered under drought.Despite these localized rains, the drought meant poor food crops over much of the East and Texas, and editors from near and far commented that the low mast production appeared to be linked to low numbers of late-season birds in particular.All talk of global warming aside, even northern Alaska was relatively warm and mild, especially from August until early October, which is news."Although the norm tends to be systematic cooling and snow accumulations following a mid-to late October freeze-up, this year's freeze fell hard and fast after very mild conditions dominated the Region;' writes Thede Tobish.In British Columbia, Donald Cecile documents an unusually mild and "late, late, late" fall, with the transition to cold weather and snow coming abruptly in late November, as was true almost everywhere in the Lower 48 states.New York had its "warmest November since the 1931 Dustbowl and the first snow-free November in 122 years in Buffalo;' according to editors Paxton, Burgiel, and Cutler.Even all the way to the north of Lake Superior, Peder Svingen reports that "November weather Part of a large influx of the species from the Midwest through western New York and Pennsylvania, these Wood Storks made Clyde, New York their fishing ground in late August and September.

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How this classification was reachedexpand

Full frame machine prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.000
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.001
Version: metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061cValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesnone
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Not applicable · Consensus signal: none
GenreCandidate signal: Other · Consensus signal: none
Teacher disagreement score0.021
Threshold uncertainty score0.052

Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0000.001
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0000.000
Bibliometrics0.0000.001
Science and technology studies0.0040.001
Scholarly communication0.0040.002
Open science0.0000.002
Research integrity0.0010.002
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0160.002

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.019
GPT teacher head0.174
Teacher spread0.155 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it

Classification

machine, unvalidated

Machine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.

The models applied no category: nothing in the taxonomy fit this work.
Study designNot applicable
Domainnot available
GenreOther

How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".

Quick stats

Citations0
Published2002
Admission routes1
Has abstractyes

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