Dynamiques des marchés régionaux du travail et cycles économiques : Canada, 1996-2011
Bibliographic record
Abstract
RÉSUMÉ: Les inégalités régionales ont toujours été observées dans l'économie canadienne, et elles se reflètent au niveau des taux de chômage. Bien que des études ont été menées sur les évolutions des taux de chômage régionaux, les effets du cycle économique sur les performances et les inégalités régionales demeurent flous. Ce mémoire s'intéresse alors aux possibles liens entre les performances régionales et le contexte économique national. L'étude se base sur les variations des taux de chômage régionaux en fonction des changements dans la demande de travail et dans l'offre de travail, en exploitant les données de l'Enquête sur la population active (EPA) de Statistique Canada de 1996 à 2011. Les résultats montrent que les cycles régionaux adoptent des trajectoires distinctives qui ne sont pas forcément liées au cycle économique national. Plus précisément, la sensibilité des cycles régionaux aux cycles nationaux peut varier d'une région à une autre. L'absence de récurrence temporelle et spatiale est valide aussi bien pour la variation du taux d'emploi que celle du taux d'activité, au niveau des grandes villes urbaines comme pour les petites régions rurales. Mais il y aurait un plus grand accord entre les cycles régionaux et macroéconomique à certains moments, notamment en cas de récession. Par contre, le voisinage assume un rôle de plus en plus grand dans les performances économiques régionales et la dernière récession semble accentuer ce rôle. \nIl y a donc une importante dimension régionale dans le chômage canadien. La performance d'un marché régional du travail s'explique mieux à partir de ses caractéristiques propres mais aussi par le comportement des marchés voisins. Ces résultats expliquent mieux les inégalités régionales au Canada et incitent à la mise en oeuvre d'une politique de l'emploi efficace dans l'avenir. -- Mots-clés: taux de chômage régionaux - Canada - autocorrélation spatiale - cycle économique. --ABSTRACT: Regional inequalities have always been a reality in the Canadian economy. One of such inequalities is reflected among differences in regional unemployment rates. Although there is some research on the regional unemployment rates, the effects of the business cycles on regional performances remain largely unclear. This thesis investigates possible relationship between regional labor markets' performance and the business cycle. The study relies upon variations of the regional unemployment rate resulting from changes in labor demand and supply, drawing upon data from the Labor Force Survey (LFS) of Statistics Canada from 1996 to 2011. Results reveal that Canadian regional labor market cycles adopt distinctive trajectories, independent of the national business cycles. More precisely, the sensitivity of regional cycles to national cycles varies from one region to another. The absence of temporal and spatial recurrence is seen in the employment rate and the labor force participation rate. There are no differences of patterns between urban and rural regional markets. But there was more agreement between regional and macroeconomic cycles in certain phases of the latter, especially in a recession. However, spatial proximity plays an increasingly large part in regional performance, and the latest recession appears to have accentuated that relationship. \nThis means there is a strong regional dimension in Canadian unemployment. The performance of a regional labor market is better explained startin g from its intrinsic characteristics but also by the behavior of its closest neighbors. The findings are expected to provide a better understanding of regional inequalities in Canada and to make possible more effective employment policies in the future. -- Key words: regional unemployment rate - Canada - spatial autocorrelation - business cycles.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.003 | 0.010 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.003 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.007 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".