Efectos macroeconomicos de las fluctuaciones de los precios del petroleo en Colombia
Bibliographic record
Abstract
This research aims to study the effects of oil price changes on the Colombian economy during 2001Q1 to 2016Q2 A structural vector autoregression model in the spirit of Blanchardand Gali 2010 is estimated under arecursive identification scheme where unexpected oil price variations are exogenous relative to the contemporaneous values of the remaining variables Drawing on impulseresponse estimates a 10 increase in the oil price generates the following accumulated orthogonalized responses i a contemporaneous 04 increase in GDP growth later on the effect reaches its maximum in the first quarter 17 increase and starts to decay after two quarters ii a contemporaneous 12 decrease in unemployment then the effect remains slightly negative andreaches its maximum after ten quarters 51 decrease iii a contemporaneous 09 decrease in inflation followed by an 02 increase by quarter three and thereafter the effect remains slightly negative
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.002 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".