Estimated Inflation by Household Characteristics
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Price changes, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) had remained relatively stable for the last number of years, with annual changes in the CPI remaining under +2.0% between September 2012 and June 2021 inclusive. While prices decreased on an annual basis through much of 2020, inflation has been increasing since April 2021 and has been at least 5.0% since October 2021. The annual inflation rate of 9.2% measured in October 2022 is the highest seen since Quarter 2 1984 when annual inflation stood at 9.7%. The increasing rate of inflation since the middle of 2021 has prompted a greater interest in price change and its effect on households. The CPI is designed to measure the annual rate of inflation, i.e. the change in the average level of prices for consumer goods and services. Thus, the CPI is a measure of average inflation, based on average expenditure weights. However, every household has its own unique consumption pattern and therefore its own personal experience of inflation. Households that spend a higher proportion of their total expenditure on goods and services that are increasing in price by more than the rate of inflation, will experience higher inflation than the CPI average rate. While it would not be feasible to calculate inflation for each individual household, research in Ireland and other countries has highlighted the value of compiling inflation estimates for different groups or cohorts of the population. This paper begins by presenting the history of changes in the cost of living in Ireland over the last 100 years and outlines how the drivers of those price changes have evolved over time. It then presents results from the Household Budget Survey (HBS) which can be used to estimate inflation rates for various household groups. Estimated rates of inflation for the five year period up to September 2022 are presented for households grouped by equivalised gross household income deciles, by household tenure, by the location of the household (urban/rural), by the age of the household reference person, and by the composition of the household. Finally, the paper demonstrates how those estimated inflation rates for the various household groups have evolved in the last five years.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.003 | 0.018 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.003 | 0.004 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.008 | 0.004 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".