Sensitivity to Online Consensus Effects Within Individuals and Claim Types
Bibliographic record
Abstract
When reasoning about a claim, it makes sense to be more persuaded if lots of other people agree. But, there are many factors that make weighing the evidence behind a consensus complicated. For example, a consensus might be more or less informative depending on the type of claim, or whether each consensus member formed their opinions independently. These factors might also influence people differently depending on their own assumptions or preferences. In this study we used a mock social media paradigm to assess how persuaded people were by two factors: the presence of consensus (no consensus vs. consensus), and source independence (a consensus based on independent information sources vs. a consensus formed off shared, dependent sources). We varied these factors at both the group and individual level. At the group level, we assessed a third factor: whether people were influenced by the type of claim being reasoned about (we assessed 60 different claims divided into 4 categories). Almost everyone was more persuaded by consensus trials compared to no consensus trials. However, the strength of this effect was credibly stronger if the claim was likely to have a ground truth. We found that around one third of participants were sensitive to source independence. Of these, three quarters were more persuaded by a consensus based on independent sources, but the quarter who were more persuaded by dependent sources were persuaded just as strongly.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.031 | 0.221 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.004 | 0.004 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.004 |
| Research integrity | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.007 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".