20 years of NAFTA – trends in trade and the economic effects. Ekonomia XXI Wieku = Economics of the 21st Century, 2014, Nr 4 (4), s. 46-63
Bibliographic record
Abstract
This year marks the twentieth anniversary of the largest economic grouping in history, both in terms of surface area and the generated GDP -the North American Free Trade Agreement -NAFTA.The grouping was established on 1 January 1994, with the objective of gradually doing away with the existing tariff and non-tariff barriers to trade between the United States, Canada, and Mexico.Its objectives and effects have long been under careful examination and subject to many analyses.Prognoses varied, from potentially significant benefits to anticipated losses, particularly for US economy.The paper is an attempt at presenting the twenty years of NAFTA operation, predominantly from the viewpoint of its impact on the trilateral trade exchange, unemployment, inflation, and the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of its member states.The analyses suggest that NAFTA has proved its effectiveness in generating trade revenues for all its members, most notably for Mexico.However, its effects on individual income and employment were found to be marginal or, at best, moderate.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.005 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.002 | 0.003 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.008 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".