Assessing the Impact of Climate Change on Electricity Planning in Ontario, Canada
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Electricity grid adequacy is the ability of the electric system to supply the electricity required at all times, accounting for derates and outages of system components. Ontario’s electricity needs are primarily met by thermal and hydroelectric generators, shown to be impacted by climate conditions. We quantify the effects of climate change on Ontario’s future demand and capacity based on the highest risk climate change scenario (RCP 8.5) for the year 2040. The main climate change variables considered are temperature, humidity, and precipitation. Very minor reductions in summer effective capacity are expected (approximately 0.2%), together with a moderate increase in summer demand (approximately 6%). These results only reflect the impacts of climate change relative to the current climate. Although the Independent Electricity System Operator appears to capture enough variability in their grid adequacy estimates, it may be wise to add additional butter to capture the impact of climate change discovered here.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".