City-scale modelling of road thermal and hydrological characteristics: Case study of Montreal
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The performance and management of road infrastructure are significantly impacted by climatic conditions.Climate-road interaction studies for future emission scenarios are therefore important to inform their design and management strategies.This study focusses on city-scale modelling of road thermal and hydrologic characteristics, for current and future climates, with city of Montreal, Canada as the case study.To this end, simulations using the Surface Prediction System (SPS) of Environment and Climate Change Canada, consisting of a land surface model CLASS (Canadian Land Surface Scheme) and Town Energy Balance model (TEB) for better representation of urban regions, including roads, at 250 m (0.0025) resolution, spanning the 2001-2020 and 2041-2060 periods are used.These simulations are driven by atmospheric forcing data, derived from highresolution 4-km regional climate model simulations, driven by European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast's (ECMWF) fifth generation reanalysis product ERA5 and the Canadian Earth System model (CanESM2), with the future simulations corresponding to Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario.After confirming the ability of SPS and TEB in simulating mean land and road surface temperatures (RST) by comparing with satellite data derived from MODIS, the thermal and hydrologic attributes related to road failure mechanisms during cold (October-May) and warm (June-August) seasons are studied for two broad road categories: highways and local roads, with the latter consisting of arterials, collector roads, and local roads.Analysis of important cold season thermal attributes such as freeze-thaw cycles and winter partial thaws, that can lead to loss of structural support, surface distress and pavement damage, suggests reduced impacts in future climate associated with a 12.5% decrease in freeze thaw cycles and a 2% decrease in winter partial thaws.Although weight restriction days currently practiced preventing weakening of the pavement V and road layers during the thaw period should be continued, it is projected to occur on average 15 days earlier in future climate compared to current climate according to the analysis.However, the hydrologic characteristics for the cold season, such as road runoff, suggested to increase in the 12-15% range, coupled with increases in land runoff, may offset these benefits, pointing to the need for adequate drainage systems.The spatial patterns suggest generally higher increases in runoff for the local road network for regions with higher urban fractions.Unlike the cold season, future impacts on the road network during the warm season, associated with both thermal and hydrological characteristics, are projected to increase.For instance, the projected increase in warm season mean daily maximum RST in the 4 to 4.5C range suggests the potential for more rutting events, particularly on highways.As for the cold season, projected increases in warm season road and land runoff, of about 25%, highlight the need for a thorough assessment of existing drainage systems.This study, in addition to exploring the utility of TEB as a tool for studying thermal and hydrologic characteristics of roads, albeit its simplicity, provides useful information on the climate drivers related to road failure.Furthermore, the spatial differences in vulnerability obtained for the road categories can be helpful in prioritizing road sections for more detailed studies.V RSUM La performance et la gestion des infrastructures routires sont fortement impactes par les conditions climatiques.Les tudes sur l'interaction climat-route pour les futurs scnarios d'missions sont donc importantes pour clairer leurs stratgies de conception et de gestion.Cette tude se concentre sur la modlisation l'chelle urbaine des caractristiques thermiques et hydrologiques des routes, pour les climats actuels et futurs, avec la ville de Montral, au Canada, comme tude de cas. cette fin, des simulations utilisant le modle SPS (Surface Prediction System) d'Environnement et Changement climatique Canada, compos d'un modle de surface terrestre CLASS (Canadian Land Surface Scheme) et d'un modle urbain Town Energy Balance (TEB) pour une meilleure reprsentation des rgions urbaines, incluant les routes, une rsolution de 250 m (0,0025), couvrant les priodes 2001-2020 et 2041-2060 sont utiliss.Ces simulations sont bases sur des donnes de forage atmosphrique drives de simulations de modles climatiques rgionaux de 4 km haute rsolution, pilotes par le produit de ranalyse de cinquime gnration du Centre europen pour les prvisions mtorologiques moyen terme ERA5 et le modle CanESM2 (Canadian Earth System), avec les simulations du climat futur correspondant au scnario Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5.Aprs avoir confirm la capacit des modles SPS et TEB simuler les tempratures moyennes des terres et des surfaces routires en comparant avec les donnes satellite drives de MODIS, les attributs thermiques et hydrologiques lis aux mcanismes de rupture des routes durant les saisons froide (octobre-mai) et chaude (juin-aot) sont tudis pour deux grandes catgories de routes: les autoroutes et les routes locales, ces dernires tant constitues d'artres, de routes collectrices et de routes locales.L'analyse des attributs thermiques importants de la saison froide, tels que les cycles de gel-dgel et les dgels partiels hivernaux, qui peuvent entraner une perte du V support structurel, une dtrioration de la surface et des dommages la chausse, suggre une rduction des impacts du climat futur associe une diminution de 12,5 % des cycles de gel-dgel et une diminution de 2 % des dgels partiels hivernaux.Bien que les jours de restriction de poids actuellement pratiqus pour empcher l'affaiblissement de la chausse et de la route pendant la priode de dgel devraient tre maintenus, cela devrait se produire en moyenne 15 jours plus tt dans le climat futur par rapport au climat actuel, selon l'analyse.Cependant, les caractristiques hydrologiques de la saison froide, telles que le ruissellement des routes, qui devraient augmenter de 12 15 %, associes une augmentation du ruissellement des terres, pourraient contrebalancer ces avantages, soulignant la ncessit de systmes de drainage adquats.Les schmas spatiaux suggrent des augmentations gnralement plus leves du ruissellement pour le rseau routier local dans les rgions ayant une fraction urbaine plus leve.Contrairement la saison froide, les impacts futurs sur le rseau routier pendant la saison chaude, associs aux caractristiques thermiques et hydrologiques, devraient augmenter.Par exemple, l'augmentation projete de la RST quotidienne maximale moyenne en saison chaude dans la plage de 4 4,5 C suggre la possibilit d'une augmentation des pisodes d'ornirage, en particulier sur les autoroutes.En ce qui concerne la saison froide, l'augmentation prvue du ruissellement des routes et des terres pendant la saison chaude, d'environ 25 %, souligne la ncessit d'une valuation approfondie des systmes de drainage existants.Cette tude, en plus d'explorer l'utilit du modle TEB en tant qu'outil d'tude des caractristiques thermiques et hydrologiques des routes, malgr sa simplicit, fournit des informations utiles sur les facteurs climatiques lis la dfaillance des routes.En outre, les diffrences spatiales de vulnrabilit obtenues pour les diffrentes catgories de routes peuvent tre utiles pour prioriser des tronons routiers pour des tudes plus dtailles.V
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".