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Record W7018401314

Development and application of paleolimnological analyses to disentangle the roles of natural processes and anthropogenic activities on contaminant deposition and hydrological conditions across a northern delta

2022· dissertation· en· W7018401314 on OpenAlexaboutno aff

Bibliographic record

VenueUWSpace (University of Waterloo) · 2022
Typedissertation
Languageen
FieldEarth and Planetary Sciences
TopicGeology and Paleoclimatology Research
Canadian institutionsnot available
Fundersnot available
KeywordsOil sandsClimate changeDeposition (geology)DeltaPaleolimnologyEcosystemAquatic ecosystemHabitatSediment
DOInot available

Abstract

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Freshwater ecosystems across northern Canada provide important habitat for wildlife and have long supported the traditional lifestyles of Indigenous communities. Multiple potential stressors threaten the security of water supply to northern landscapes, which fosters need for information spanning broad spatial and temporal scales to inform adaptive and mitigative strategies. At the Peace-Athabasca Delta (PAD; northern Alberta), the world's largest boreal freshwater delta, existing data records have been too short and too sparse to resolve many concerns over the roles of major energy projects (hydroelectric regulation of river flow, oil sands development) and climate change on decline of flood frequency and magnitude and drawdown of shallow aquatic basins, and on supply of substances of concern. Intensive paleolimnological research during the past two decades at the PAD has evaluated past changes in contaminant deposition and hydroecological conditions to discern effects attributable to oil sands development along the Lower Athabasca River and to regulation of Peace River flow by the W.A.C. Bennett Dam. This thesis builds substantially on these previous studies to address knowledge gaps by applying conventional paleolimnological methods at new locations to improve understanding of temporal changes in contaminant deposition and hydrological change and developing an innovative paleolimnological approach for discerning variation in sediment sources over space and time to lakes within the PAD. \n\tConcerns of pollution in the PAD stem from potential for dispersal of contaminants released by bitumen mining and processing activities within the Alberta Oil Sands Region (AOSR), which straddle the Lower Athabasca River. Unfortunately, systematic monitoring began thirty years after onset of oil sands development and sampling locations have changed over time, which has hampered the ability to accurately track temporal trends or attribute sources of pollution at the AOSR and downstream locations. Previous paleolimnological studies in the PAD have provided critically missing baseline information by employing lake sediment deposited before oil sands development to evaluate lake or river-bottom sediment deposited after oil sands development for evidence of pollution. Results show no enrichment via fluvial or atmospheric pathways, however, analyses to date were limited to a sediment core from one upland lake and samples of river-bottom sediment collected from a few sites within the Lower Athabasca River and its distributaries within the PAD. In Chapters 2 and 3, contiguous measurements of trace elements (beryllium, chromium, lead, mercury, nickel, vanadium, and zinc) in lake sediment from floodplain and upland lakes were employed to develop knowledge of pre-disturbance concentrations, and to quantify the extent of enrichment in lakes at the PAD since onset of oil sands mining and processing activities via fluvial and atmospheric pathways, respectively. Results demonstrate no enrichment since onset of oil sands development via fluvial pathways. Also, no enrichment via atmospheric pathways was detected for vanadium, nickel and total mercury (THg) at upland lakes coincident with the onset of oil sands activities. Total mercury enrichment was detected at the start of the 20th century in sediment cores from two upland lakes, which is congruent with stratigraphic patterns observed in many other lake sediment records in response to long-range anthropogenic emissions across the northern hemisphere. \n\tSite-specific paleolimnological studies from four regions spanning large-scale bitumen mining on the Lower Athabasca River to gold mining in central Northwest Territories (including AOSR, PAD, Slave River Delta (SRD), Yellowknife region of central NWT) have provided a wealth of information about temporal patterns of deposition of substances of concern. Differences in laboratory methods and data analysis, however, have challenged ability to compare and contrast site-specific studies among regions. Opportunity to coalesce the current state of knowledge was capitalized on in Chapter 4 via systematic re-analysis of concentrations of key pollution-indicator trace elements in sediment cores from 51 lakes spanning the four key regions. Lake sediment records from lakes within the mining regions (AOSR and central Northwest Territories) illustrate enrichment of pollution-indicators since onset of mining and processing activities via atmospheric pathways, while no enrichment was detected at the PAD or SRD via fluvial pathways since onset of mining activities. The knowledge generated from Chapters 2-4 can be employed by multiple stakeholder groups to assess risks associated with contaminant dispersal across a vast region of northwestern Canada. \n\tLong-term perspectives provided by paleohydrological studies at the PAD have demonstrated that decline of flood frequency and magnitude and lake-level drawdown began decades before onset of Peace River flow regulation by the W.A.C. Bennett Dam. Many of these studies have been concentrated in the northern Peace Delta but concerns also exist about declines in river discharge, flood frequency and lake levels in the southern Athabasca Delta. Chapter 5 tests the hypothesis that the Embarras Breakthrough, a natural geomorphic change in distributary flow of the Athabasca River, is the main driver of recent hydrological change in the Athabasca Delta. Stratigraphic variations in the mineral matter content of sediment cores from nine floodplain lakes, including at sites within the Athabasca River terminus region, demonstrate that flood influence increased after 1982 at lakes along a distributary to the north of the Embarras Breakthrough and declined at lakes east of the Embarras Breakthrough. The timing of this bi-directional change confirms that the Embarras Breakthrough has caused the largest shift in hydrological conditions within the Athabasca Delta during the past ~120 years. \n\t Paleohydrological reconstructions employing conventional analyses have provided valuable insight into the hydrological evolution of the PAD but integration of the results across sites has remained a challenge due to marked differences in sediment composition across the spectrum of hydrological processes influencing lake water balances. At flood-prone lakes, physical methods (e.g., grain size, magnetic susceptibility) provide high information content, whereas biological or bio-geochemical methods (e.g., diatoms, plant macrofossils, cellulose oxygen isotope composition) provide high information content at perched basins. Elemental concentrations, however, can be determined accurately along the full gradient of mineral-rich to organic-rich sediment of flood-prone and perched basins, respectively, and can be used to delineate the three major sources of sediment supplied to lakes (Athabasca River, Peace River, and local catchment), which is a key advancement over previous paleolimnological studies. In Chapter 6, a mixing model framework was developed and evaluated via application to sediment cores from two adjacent lakes in the Athabasca Delta. Output from the mixing model aligns remarkably well with conventional loss-on-ignition analysis and paleohydrological interpretations from the same two lakes, which further illustrate the profound effect of the 1982 Embarras Breakthrough on hydrological conditions of lakes in Athabasca Delta. Interestingly, model results indicated that ~60% of the sediment originated from the Peace River during the largest ice-jam flood event in the hydrometric record (1974). Due to the success of this model, opportunity exists to apply the model to a network of lakes in the PAD, where elemental concentrations have been analyzed, to reconstruct spatial and temporal variation of pathways of sediment sources and infer changes in hydrological processes. The methods developed and applied in this thesis are anticipated to be broadly applicable to other freshwater landscapes where monitoring records remain too short and too sparse to discern effects of multiple stressors.

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

How this classification was reachedexpand

Full frame machine prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.002
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.002
Version: metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061cValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesnone
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Observational · Consensus signal: Observational
GenreCandidate signal: Empirical · Consensus signal: Empirical
Teacher disagreement score0.265
Threshold uncertainty score0.527

Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0020.002
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0000.000
Bibliometrics0.0030.003
Science and technology studies0.0010.001
Scholarly communication0.0020.001
Open science0.0010.001
Research integrity0.0000.000
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0010.000

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.016
GPT teacher head0.264
Teacher spread0.249 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it

Classification

machine, unvalidated

Machine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.

The models applied no category: nothing in the taxonomy fit this work.
Study designObservational
Domainnot available
GenreEmpirical

How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".

Quick stats

Citations0
Published2022
Admission routes1
Has abstractyes

Explore more

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