How severe space weather can disrupt global supply chains
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) strong enough to\ncreate electromagnetic effects at latitudes below the auroral\noval are frequent events that could soon have substantial\nimpacts on electrical grids. Modern society’s heavy reliance\non these domestic and international networks increases our\nsusceptibility to such a severe space-weather event. Using a\nnew high-resolution model of the global economy, we simulate\nthe economic impact of strong CMEs for three different\nplanetary orientations. We account for the economic impacts\nwithin the countries directly affected, as well as the\npost-disaster economic shock in partner economies linked by\ninternational trade. For a 1989 Quebec-like event, the global\neconomic impacts would range from USD 2.4 to 3.4 trillion\nover a year. Of this total economic shock, about 50% would\nbe felt in countries outside the zone of direct impact, leading\nto a loss in global Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of 3.9 to\n5.6 %. The global economic damage is of the same order as\nwars, extreme financial crisis and estimated for future climate\nchange.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.009 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".