Ice core evidence for the Los Chocoyos supereruption disputes millennial-scale climate impact
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Stratospheric sulfate aerosols from explosive volcanic eruptions reflect incoming solar radiation and cool the planet, leading to the hypothesis that the largest volcanic events triggered millennial-scale cold periods over the last ice age. Here, we identify tephra shards from the Atitlán Los Chocoyos supereruption (LCY), one of the largest Quaternary eruptions, in ice cores from Greenland and Antarctica (dated at 79.5 ± 1.7 ka), and a marine sediment core (linked to a sea level highstand at 80.5 ± 0.9 ka). The large ice core sulfate peak associated with the tephra results in an estimated stratospheric sulfur injection of 226 ± 48 Tg S (1σ) for LCY, consistent with volcanic-induced cooling on a multi-annual scale. However, the well-constrained timing of LCY within the high-resolution temperature proxy records of ice cores proves it was not a trigger of millennial-scale cooling.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.004 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.005 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".