IMO 2020 황산화물 규제에 대한 대응방안의 비용·편익분석을 통한 경제성 연구

Since 1 January 2020, the International Maritime Organization (IMO) has implemented IMO 2020, a regulation that drastically strengthens the standards for sulfur content in fuel oil from ships sailing all over the world from 3.5% to 0.5%. 
\nAs of January 2015, regulations have been implemented in the Baltic Sea, North Sea, North America (US and Canada), and the United States Caribbean Emission Control Areas (ECA) to reduce the sulfur content in ships' fuel oil from 1% to 0.1%.
\nBased on the 「Special Act on the Improvement of Air Quality in Port Areas, etc.」by the Korean government, the waters near five major ports such as Busan, Incheon, Yeosu, Gwangyang, Ulsan, Pyeongtaek, and Dangjin were designated as sulfur oxides emission control areas (ECA). In connection with this, from September 1, 2020, these ports should be reduced to less than 0.1%, which is the standard for sulfur content in fuel oil required by the World Maritime Organization (IMO).
\nSince the environmental regulations of the World Maritime Organization (IMO) that were previously implemented essentially required physical changes such as ship modification and equipment installation, it was impossible to apply such environmental regulations to existing ships. Therefore, in order to replace or modify the existing ship with a new ship, the application or scope of regulations has been expanded in a stepwise and gradual manner.
\nHowever, the feature of the IMO 2020 sulfur oxides regulation is that it applies not only to new ships, but also to all ships in operation, without exception.
\nIn order to satisfy the IMO 2020 regulations, there are methods other than the physical modification or change of ships that have been conventionally performed so far. Shipping companies can do so without physical changes of ships to meet the regulations.
\nThe countermeasures that satisfy the IMO 2020 regulations can be divided into a method of converting to low-sulfur oil and using a conventional scrubber, an exhaust gas desulfurization device that can use the original sulfur oil as it is, and a method of using other alternative fuels such as LNG.
\nAlthough other alternative fuels such as LNG are economical options to respond to the IMO 2020 sulfur oxides regulations that can only be secured when a new ship is built, most shipping companies are considering the installation of a scrubber as a realistic countermeasure.
\nThe most important factor for the shipping company is to decide the most economical option in response to IMO 2020. Therefore, the shipping company has two options. One is to install the scrubber and the other is to use low-sulfur oil. It is necessary to decide the countermeasure to maximize the shipping company's economic efficiency by considering various factors such as the size, type of ship, operation pattern, and contract type.
\nAmid the reluctance of oil refinery companies to produce reliably and supply low-sulfur fuel oil that is suitable for regulation, the prediction of the spread between low sulphur fuel oil and high sulphur fuel oil of various professional organizations was an important key for shipping companies to decide the direction to respond before 2020.
\nHowever, there are many differences between the forecast of the spread at the beginning of the announcement of the IMO 2020 regulation and the current spread of the current stage of implementation as of 2020, due to the supply and demand conditions of low sulfur fuel oil, the drop in oil prices, and the global economic contraction due to COVID 19. 
\nPrior to IMO 2020, the spread of low-sulfur oil sold from July 2019 reached a high of $ 353 per ton and remained at around $ 60 as of May 2020, making regulatory response more cautious.
\nThis study is to confirm the lowest spread that can satisfy the regulations and secure economic efficiency under the fluctuations in oil prices that are rapidly changing due to external factors, unlike the previous studies that refer to the recoverable spread as soon as possible.
\nThis study analyzed the economic benefits between scrubber installation and usage of low-sulfur fuel oil through a mathematical modeling method using cost-benefit analysis. It is meaningful in that it can easily check the economic feasibility of an investment vessel even if the situation changes due to various external factors in the future.

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