The Ontario Electricity Market - Global Adjustment Model, Over-contracted Supply Estimation, and Price Decomposition
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The Ontario government has implemented guaranteed price contracts with renewable and nuclear electricity producers. When generation of the contracted supply is greater than Ontario's demand (less imports), the excess electricity must be exported and/or some contracted generators must be temporarily shut down (some still receive payment). This paper estimates over-contracted generation loss from 2006 to March 2012 and finds the yearly loss for 2011 was approximately $17.7 million dollars added with the forced shut down cost of $20.1 million. The export industry reduced the potential loss by $5.6 million by paying the lndependent Electricity System Operator wholesale market price (lower than the contracted rate) for the excess contracted generation. The argument for keeping a discrepancy between export price (wholesale) and Ontario's consumer price (wholesale + global adjustment) is based on this value. The Ontario lndependent Electricity System Operator market wholesale price dropped significantly with the decrease in the price of gas in 2009 (discovery of shale gas). However, from 2008 to 2011, the overall Ontario consumer price has increased, by $17.19/MWH to $20.00/MWH. At least $10.19/MWH of this increase is due to Ontario Power Authority renewable energy contracts and OPA programs.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.006 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".