Practical issues in modern Monte Carlo integration
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Computing marginal likelihoods to perform Bayesian model selection is a challenging task, particularly when the models considered involve a large number of parameters. In this thesis, we propose the use of an adaptive quadrature algorithm to automate the selection of the grid in path sampling, an integration technique recognized as one of the most powerful Monte Carlo integration statistical methods for marginal likelihood estimation. We begin by examining the impact of two tuning parameters of path sampling, the choice of the importance density and the specification of the grid, which are both shown to be potentially very influential. We then present, in detail, the Grid Selection by Adaptive Quadrature (GSAQ) algorithm for selecting the grid. We perform a comparison between the GSAQ and standard grid implementation of path sampling using two well-studied data sets; the GSAQ approach is found to yield superior results. GSAQ is then successfully applied to a longitudinal hierarchical regression model selection problem in Multiple Sclerosis research.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.025 | 0.113 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.002 | 0.005 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.004 | 0.006 |
| Open science | 0.004 | 0.005 |
| Research integrity | 0.003 | 0.007 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.010 | 0.004 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".