Socio-hydrology from Local to Large Scales: An Agent-based Modeling Approach

For decades, the interaction between water and people has attracted hydrologists’ attention. However, the coevolution of social and natural processes, which occurs across a range of time scales, has not yet been adequately characterized. This research gap has motivated more research in recent years under the umbrella of “socio-hydrology”. The purpose of socio-hydrology is to posit the endogeneity of humans in a hydrological system and then to investigate feedback mechanisms between hydrological and human systems that might lead to emergent phenomena.\nThe current state-of-the-art in socio-hydrology faces several challenges that include (1) a tenuous connection of socio-hydrology to broader research on social, economic, and policy aspects of water resources, (2) the (in)capability of socio-hydrological models to capture human behavior by generic feedback mechanisms that can be extrapolated to other places, and (3) unsatisfying calibration or validation processes in modeling. To address the first gap, a socio-hydrology study needs to connect proper social theories on water-related human decision making with a water resource model based on a given context and scale. Addressing the second gap calls for socio-hydrology research with case studies in different and contrasting regions and at different scales. In fact, such study can shed light on the similarities and differences in socio-hydrological systems in different contexts and scales as initial steps for future research. The third research gap calls for a socio-hydrology study that improves calibration and validation processes. Thus, to address all these gaps in one thesis, two case studies with completely different environments are chosen to investigate various phenomena at different scales. \nThe research presented here contributes to socio-hydrological understanding at two spatial scales. To account for the heterogeneity of human decision making and its interactions with the hydrologic system, an agent-based modeling (ABM) approach is used in this research. The first objective is to explore human adaptation to drought as well as the subsequent expected or unexpected effects on the agricultural sector and to develop a socio-hydrological model to predict agricultural water demand. To do so, an agent-based agricultural water demand model (ABAD) is developed. This model is applied to the Bow River Basin in Alberta, Canada, as a study region, which has recently experienced drought periods. The second objective is to explore conflict-and-cooperation processes in transboundary rivers as socio-hydrological phenomena at a large scale. The Eastern Nile Basin Socio-hydrological (ENSH) model is developed and applied to the Eastern Nile Basin (ENB) in Africa in which conflict-and-cooperation dynamics can be seen among Egypt, Sudan, and Ethiopia. The ENSH model aims to quantify and simulate these countries’ willingness to cooperate in the ENB. \nABAD demonstrates (1) how farmers’ attitudes toward profits, risk aversion, environmental protection, social interaction, and irrigation expansion explain the dynamics of the water demand and (2) how the conservation program may paradoxically lead to the rebound phenomenon whereby the water demand may increase after decreasing through modernized irrigation systems. Through the ABAD model analysis, economic factors are found to dominantly control possible rebounds. Based on the insights gained via the model analysis, it is discussed that several strategies, including community participation and water restrictions, can be adopted to avoid the rebound phenomenon in irrigation systems. Fostering farmers’ awareness about the average water use in their community could be a means to avoid the rebound phenomenon through community participation. Also, another strategy to avoid the rebound phenomenon could be to reassign water allocations to reduce farmers’ water rights.\nThe ENSH model showed that (1) socio-political factors (i.e., relative political stability and foreign direct investment) can explain two historical trends (i.e., (a) fluctuations in Ethiopia’s willingness to cooperate between 1983 and 2009 and (b) a decreasing Ethiopia’s willingness to cooperate between 2009 and 2016); (2) the 2008 food crisis (i.e., Sudan’s food gap) may account for Sudan recovering its willingness to cooperate; and (3) Egypt’s political (in)stability plays a role in its willingness to cooperate.\nThe outcomes of this research can provide valuable insights to support policymakers for the long-term sustainability of water planning. This research investigates two main socio-hydrological phenomena at different spatial scales: the agricultural rebound phenomenon at a small geographical scale and the conflict and cooperation phenomena at a large geographical scale. The emergence of these phenomena can be a complex resultant of interaction and feedback mechanisms between the social system at the individual, institutional, and society levels and the hydrological system. Through developing quantitative socio-hydrological models, this research investigates the feedback mechanisms that may lead to the rebound phenomenon at a small scale and the conflict and cooperation phenomenon at a large scale. Finally, the research shows how these socio-hydrological models can be used for sustainable water management to avoid negative long-term consequences.

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