With Increased Pessimism Over UK Prospects, Is It Time To Think Again About The Costs Of Brexit?
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The Bank of England in its latest forecasts that accompanied the Monetary Policy Committee’s (MPC) decision to raise interest rates by a further quarter of a per cent in early May made grim reading, as was well documented by Steve McCabe in an earlier BCU blog. But are we paying enough attention to the causes? Yes, energy prices are an issue that all countries have to deal with. And yes, food price rises are a problem worldwide. But while inflation is thought to be near to peaking across the Eurozone and in the US, price pressures in the UK are instead expected to intensify. And the slowdown in growth that is expected in the next few months, culminating in an overall fall in GDP next year, is not in line with general trends elsewhere.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.003 | 0.021 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.007 | 0.005 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.017 | 0.012 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.004 |
| Research integrity | 0.007 | 0.006 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.320 | 0.171 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".