The Eritrea-Ethiopia conflict: Domestic and regional ramifications and the role of the international community
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Eritrea and Ethiopia have been locked in bitter conflict since 1998; a conflict that has exacerbated internal political crises in both states, split the two ruling parties, threatened regional peace and security, and cost tens of thousands of lives. Although border and territorial disputes have not been uncommon in Africa as elsewhere (Widstrand, 1969; Nugent and Asiwaju, 1996), never have these conflicts led to such a ferocious war as between Ethiopia and Eritrea. This paper argues that the reasons for the conflict are far more complex than many have assumed, and are intrinsically embedded in the convoluted history of the two ruling parties. It asserts that relations between Eritrea and Ethiopia have been fraught with more serious, underlying tensions than are known publicly, and uses the author's insider view to shed some light on the socio-political background of the conflict, and the obstacles to its resolution. Whereas many writers on the subject have attributed the conflict to the differences between the states - such as contrasting economic and fiscal policies, an open economy in the case of Eritrea, and more government control in the case of Ethiopia - the author suggests that the conflict has largely persisted due to their similarities; notably in terms of identity, conceptions of power, governance structures, economic policies, and political orientation. Such a close relationship between the two ruling parties and the societies from which they draw their support, linked by the web of common factors listed above, have caused the two parties to build their relationship on assumptions. This failure to formalize assumptions into legally-binding treaties has contributed, among other reasons, to the prolongation of hostilities. In addition, the international community (academics, diplomats and politicians) has been inclined to focus on border/territorial issues as the primary trigger for the Eritrea-Ethiopia dispute, a diagnosis that is not necessarily in line with the fundamental causes of the conflict. This paper thus contends that the Eritrea-Ethiopia conflict cannot be resolved without tackling the internal political dynamics of both states. The international community can best address this by looking beyond border disputes to political reform, dialogue, and national reconciliation within and between both states.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.003 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.007 | 0.009 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.015 | 0.005 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.005 |
| Research integrity | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.005 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".