Exportaciones mexicanas de tomate fresco en el mercado norteamericano: Un estudio sobre el efecto de los factores que determinan la competitividad internacional.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Durante los últimos 15 años las exportaciones mexicanas de tomate en fresco (Lycopersicon esculentum Mill.) han perdido competitividad en el mercado norteamericano. En el año 1996 la participación de las exportaciones de México representaban 93.0% de la demanda externa de los Estados Unidos, y para 2009 dicha participación disminuyó a 88.9%. Para analizar los efectos de diversos factores que afectan la competitividad de las exportaciones de esta hortaliza en el mercado de los Estados Unidos; como el incremento en la productividad y la depreciación del peso se validó un modelo de equilibrio espacial e intertemporal que incluye el comercio entre los países miembros del TLCAN, en el periodo 2005-2008. Los resultados revelan que un aumento de 20% en la productividad de la producción en México incrementaría la oferta de este país en 14.7%, y un aumento de 28.7% en las exportaciones mexicanas hacia los Estados Unidos. El resultado anterior mejoraría la participación de México en las importaciones estadounidenses pasando de 89.0 a 90.8%. También aumentaría la participación de las exportaciones de México en el consumo doméstico de los Estados Unidos de 34.7 a 41.5%. Una disminución en la tasa de cambio en 25% disminuiría las exportaciones mexicanas de tomate en 14.9%, respecto a las observadas en el año de análisis. Una depreciación del peso en 25% incrementaría las exportaciones de México en 13.4%, logrando aumentar la participación de nuestro país en el mercado estadounidense en 3.4 puntos porcentuales, y desplazar a la producción doméstica de ese país y a las importaciones canadienses. Debido a que un aumento en 20% en la productividad aumenta la participación de México en el mercado norteamericano se recomienda el aumento de los rendimientos como mecanismo para posesionarse nuevamente en el mercado internacional. Los cambios en el tipo de cambio tienen un fuerte impacto sobre las corrientes comerciales en el mercado norteamericano del tomate de ahí que el Gobierno debe manejar la política cambiaria de tal forma que mantenga una tasa de cambio en equilibrio. _______________ MEXICAN EXPORTS OF FRESH TOMATO INTO THE U.S. MARKET: A STUDY ON THE EFFECT OF FACTORS THAT DETERMINE THE INTERNATIONAL COMPETITIVENESS. ABSTRACT: During the past 15 years, Mexican exports of fresh tomato (Lycopersicon esculentum Mill.) have lost competitiveness in the North American market. In 1996 the share of Mexican exports accounted for 93.0% for foreign demand of the U.S.A., and by 2009 this share decreased to 88.9%. To analyze the effects of various factors affecting the export competitiveness of this vegetable in the U. S.A. market, such as increased yields and the depreciation the of Mexican currency (peso), a spatial and intertemporal equilibrium model that includes trade between the NAFTA countries was validated for the period 2005-2008. The results show that a 20% yields increase in Mexico would increase the supply of this country at 14.7% and 28.7% increase in Mexican exports to the U.S.A. This result would improve the participation of Mexico in U.S.A. imports from 89.0 to 90.8%. Also would increase the share of Mexican exports in the North American domestic consumption from 34.7 to 41.5%. A 25% reduction in the exchange rate would decrease in 14.89% Mexican exports of tomatoes compared to those observed in the year of analysis. A depreciation of the peso by 25% increase Mexico's exports by 13.4%, achieving increased participation of our country in the U.S.A. market by 3.4 percentage points, and move the country's domestic production and Canadian imports. Because a 20% increase in productivity increases the participation of Mexico in the U.S.A. market it is recommended to increase yields as a mechanism to gain position again in the international market. Changes in the exchange rate have a strong impact on trade flows in the U.S.A.’s tomato market, which is why the Government should handle foreign exchange policy so as to maintain an equilibrium exchange rate.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.002 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.003 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; both teacher heads agree on what is shown here.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".