From initial maltreatment investigation: exploring the placement trajectories of children in the Québec child protection system
Bibliographic record
Abstract
This three article dissertation contributes to the growing child protection placement literature by providing the first Canadian series of interconnected province-wide longitudinal studies identifying age-specific factors associated to when and for whom placement, placement changes, and family reunification are most likely to occur. This information can assist child protection authorities in making program and policy decisions regarding existing family preservation and placement support efforts as well as new initiatives and interventions aimed at targeting the most vulnerable.DESIGN/METHODS: Two different data sources were merged to create the province-wide dataset used for this dissertation. One data source is comprised of anonymized longitudinal clinical-administrative child protection data from all sixteen mandated child protection jurisdictions in the province of Québec. The second is comprised of provincial data extracted from the 2006 Canadian Census used to create a neighbourhood area socioeconomic disadvantage composite index. The first study examines when and for whom initial out-of-home placement is most likely to occur for 127,181 children investigated for maltreatment for the first time between April 1, 2002 and March 31, 2010. The second study examines when and for whom out-of-home placement changes are most likely to occur for 29,040 children admitted to out-of-home care for the first time between April 1, 2002 and March 31, 2011. The third study examines when and for whom family reunification is most likely to occur for 24,196 children admitted to out-of-home care for the first time between April 1, 2002 and March 31, 2011. Cox proportional hazard regression models are used in all three studies. FINDINGS: The majority of children served by the Québec child protection system are not placed in out-of-home care, and the majority of those who are experience less than one placement change and return to live with their families within less than six months of initial out-of-home placement. The three studies suggest that there are two discrete age-specific sub-groups who experience problematic placement trajectories, one described as younger children living in unsafe environments due to family difficulties and a lack of appropriate and adequate parental care and the other described as older children manifesting child-specific high risk behaviours which compromise their safety and/or the safety of others, as well as their development. However, all children, irrespective of age, are less likely to reunify with their families if they were placed as a result of parent's high risk behaviours and a lack of appropriate and adequate parental care. This dissertation also suggests that an increase in the number of maltreatment investigations significantly increases children's chances of placement, placement changes, and decreases their chances of returning to live with their families. Similarly, an increase in the number of placement changes decreases children's chances of returning to live with their families. Youth criminal behaviours also statistically explain older children's chances of removal, changing placements and reunification; specifically, older placed children receiving youth criminal justice services are more likely to experience frequent placement changes and less likely to return to their families. Last, this dissertation confirms the association between neighbourhood area socioeconomic disadvantages and the increased risk of experiencing problematic placement trajectories, suggesting that an increase in neighbourhood area socioeconomic disadvantages significantly increases children's chances of placement, placement changes (only for older children) and decrease their chances of returning to live with their families.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.005 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.005 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.005 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.002 | 0.003 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.003 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".