Methods For Evaluation Of The Alberta Hail Suppression Project Using Radar Observations
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The Alberta Hail Suppression Project is an operational weather modification program designed to reduce hailstone induced property damage that has been conducted in the area around Calgary and Red Deer since 1996. Evaluation of the project is done using the project’s C-band radar located at Olds and an Environment Canada operated C-band radar at Strathmore. An in-depth, manual review of radar data from the 2017 seeding operations has identified 21 seed cases and 15 non-seed cases. The effectiveness of seeding is determined using hail indicators of Maximum Vertically Integrated Liquid (MaxVIL) and storm area greater than or equal to 60 dBZ (Ar60) by comparing before and during seeding observations for the 21 seed cases. Several different seeding effectiveness metrics are evaluated with the Increasing Hail Ratio metric having the highest value of 0.12 for both MaxVIL and Ar60 indicators. A positive metric indicates a reduction in damaging hail, with 1 being the highest possible value. The metrics are based on the 2017 season where there are only 21 cases; however, the data set could be expanded by incorporating 2014 to 2020 years of observations since the radar configuration is similar.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.005 | 0.014 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.003 | 0.003 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.002 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.007 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".