Sea-ice Response to the 536/540 CE Double Volcanic Eruption Event
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The role of sea ice in the climate response after the 536 and 540 CE volcanic eruptions hasbeen investigated through MPI-ESM simulations with imposed volcanic forcing. There is aclear response in the Arctic sea-ice cover to the volcanic forcing. The largest sea-ice areaanomalies are found in the summer/autumn following each of the eruptions, when it is foundto be up to 1.6*1012m2(24%) larger relative to the mean of the pre-industrial control run.There is a large spatial variability both in the sea-ice response and the surface temperatureanomalies. The strongest surface cooling is found in the Arctic, where the mean temperatureanomaly reaches -4.0oC after each of the eruptions, compared to a minimum of -1.5oC and-2.0oC in the NH mean after the 536 and 540 CE eruptions respectively. A prominent patternof negative temperature anomalies is found along the sea-ice edge. The most anomaloussea-ice cover is found in the Barents Sea and the Labrador Sea. The timing and spatialdistribution of surface temperature anomalies after the eruptions is more consistent withchanges in the sea-ice cover and subsequent modification of ocean currents, than with the decreased insolation directly or the dynamical response of the atmosphere.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.005 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".