Common Era sea-level change in the North Atlantic
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Relative sea-level (RSL) varies in time and space in response to a suite of different controlling mechanisms. The reliable reconstruction of RSL using foraminifera buried in high-saltmarsh sediments enable the development of near continuous records of RSL change and provides a context for better understanding the temporal and spatial processes driving RSL. However, due to the spatial bias of recent RSL reconstructions, there remains considerable uncertainty regarding the contribution from regional and local scale processes to spatial and temporal RSL variability. This study establishes four new RSL records from the North Atlantic, two from Ireland and two from Prince Edward Island, Canada (PEI). New regional training sets of contemporary saltmarsh foraminifera are presented to quantify the relationship between elevation and foraminiferal assemblage and produce transfer functions to predict palaeomarsh surface elevation (PME) from where the height of former RSL can be established. Composite chronologies are established from 210Pb and radiocarbon (14C) dating of saltmarsh plant macrofossils coupled with chronohorizons inferred from down-core profiles of radionuclides (e.g., 137Cs) and elemental concentrations of known age. The new records demonstrate that RSL rose by ~0.5 m since 1880 CE in Cromane (Ireland), ~0.2 m since 1813 CE in Dungarvan (Ireland), ~2.1 m since 530 CE in Augustine (PEI) and ~1.1 m since 1465 CE in Haldimand River (PEI). These records are integrated into an updated global RSL database of instrumental and proxy sea level and analysed by a spatiotemporal empirical hierarchical model that quantifies the contribution to RSL from global, regional, and local-scale processes along both coasts of the North Atlantic. The analysis of the patterns and timing of RSL change suggests the that the influence of barystatic and sterodynamic processes controlled the regional variability of RSL across the North Atlantic during the Common Era. This study produces an updated global mean sea level (GMSL) curve for the Common Era consistent with estimates of global mean surface temperature (GMST) and confirms the unprecedented acceleration of RSL during the 20th century. Examination of the inflexion in the rate of sea-level rise in the North Atlantic suggests a later acceleration in NW Europe and Atlantic Canada that likely reflects the regional contribution of Greenland Ice Sheet melt to the RSL records from these regions.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".