Deep Representation Learning and Prediction for Forest Wildfires
Bibliographic record
Abstract
An average of 8000 forest wildfires occurs each year in Canada burning an average of 2.5M ha/year as reported by the Government of Canada. Given the current rate of climate change, this number is expected to increase each year. Being able to predict how the fires spread would play a critical role in fire risk management. However, given the complexity of the natural processes that influence a fire system, most of the models used for simulating wildfires are computationally expensive and need a high variety of information about the environmental parameters to be able to give good performances. Deep learning algorithms allow computers to learn from experience and understand the world in terms of a hierarchy of concepts, with each concept defined in terms of its relation to simpler concepts. We propose a deep learning predictor that uses a Deep Convolutional Auto-Encoder to learn the key structures of a forest wildfire spread from images and a Long Short Term Memory to predict the next phase of the fire. We divided the predictor problem in three phases: find a dataset of wildfires, learning the essential structure of forest fire, and predict the next image. We first present the simulated wildfires dataset and the algorithm we applied on it to make it more suitable to the model. Then we present the Deep Forest Wildfire Auto-Encoder and its implementation using the Caffe framework. Particular attention is given to the design considerations and to the best practice used to implement the model. We also present the design of the Deep Forest Wildfire Predictor, and some possible future variations of it.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".