Effects of Exchange Rate Changes on S&P 500 Price Movement
Bibliographic record
Abstract
This paper investigates the relationship between the S&P 500 stock price movements compared to the currency exchange rate movement of the five largest trading partners of the United States. The top five countries that the United States trades with are Canada, China, Germany, Japan, and Mexico. The purpose of this research is to answer the following question: Can the movement of the S&P 500 be determined by the currency exchange rates of the top five countries the United States trade with the most? For this paper, we assume that exchange rates explain the trading patterns of countries. To further analyze our question, we looked at the movement of China, Canada, Germany, Japan, and Mexico stock market indices based on their closing prices as well. Our regression estimates that the main dependent variable, the S&P 500, is significantly correlated with exchange rate movements. Furthermore, Canada has the most significant affect on the S&P 500 through both the money market and the goods market. Other dependent variables, the stock indices of China, Canada, Germany, Japan, and Mexico, show significant correlation between trading patterns and the indices. However, our findings indicated that China’s index was not significantly correlated with any of the independent variables.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.028 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".