The Effect of Trump Tariffs on Mexico and Canada
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Key MessagesUS President Donald Trump has recently announced 25% tariffs on US imports from Canada and Mexico. A simulation analysis using a quantitative framework shows that Trump’s tariffs would hit the manufacturing sector of the US’s North American neighbors particularly hard.In the event that Mexico and Canada impose symmetric retaliatory tariffs, all sectors of the economy (services, agriculture, and manufacturing) would incur permanent value-added losses.In Mexico and Canada, manufacturing has the largest decline in value added, 13% and 14%, respectively.For the US economy, agriculture has the largest decline in value added (-2.39%), but other sectors of the economy also incur permanent losses.In the event of retaliation, Canada would have to expect a long-term permanent decline in total exports of up to 28%, while Mexico could see a drop of more than 35% and the US of 22%.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.009 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.005 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.005 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.002 | 0.003 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.019 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".