Essays in financial economics
Bibliographic record
Abstract
This thesis is comprised of three essays. The first essay examines weak form market efficiency on the Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX). A model-based bootstrap is used to generate a series of simulated trials and a modified chart pattern recognition algorithm is applied to all stocks listed on the TSX. Although, we fail to reject the null hypothesis of weak form efficiency on the TSX, some sectors of the Canadian economy appear to be less efficient than others. The second essay introduces a nonparametric level crossing random walk test, in which the crossing level is determined locally. The test is robust to unknown multiple structural breaks in the level and slope of the trend function under both the null and alternative hypothesis. No knowledge regarding the number or timing of the breaks is required. The test is applied to Canadian nominal inflation and nominal interest rate series with implications for the Fisher hypothesis. The third essay is an empirical investigation of the relationship between crude oil prices and exchange rates. We find that oil price fluctuations in leading oil export countries are important determinants of their bilateral nominal exchange rates. In particular, currency appreciations are strongly associated with an increase in the price of oil for net oil exporters.
Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.
How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.003 | 0.010 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.003 | 0.003 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.002 | 0.004 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.004 | 0.004 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.002 | 0.004 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.020 | 0.006 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".