Grasping at shadows: understanding great power use of grey zone and hybrid warfare approaches through historical analysis
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Renewed, multipolar great power competition, marked by operations beyond peace but short of war, challenges Western conceptions of a peace-war binary. Attempts to explain this challenge through concepts of grey zone conflict and hybrid warfare are the subject of debate as to both the historical reality and explanatory utility of these concepts. Missing from these debates is a serious examination of whether grey zone and hybrid warfare concepts can explain historically similar cases. This thesis presents three such cases, French revisionism from 1774-1783, Soviet Far East strategy from 1937-1941, and American anti-fascist strategy from 1936-1941, to examine and test the utility of these concepts. The grey zone and hybrid warfare were found to provide descriptive and explanatory utility for these cases. Case analysis provides suggestions for the use of these concepts and recommendations for modern strategists and analysts.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.003 | 0.004 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.003 | 0.003 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.005 | 0.020 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.006 | 0.010 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.004 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".