Impacto del Covid-19 en el mercado laboral en América del Norte en 2019-2020 por sectores económicos, nivel de instrucción, género y edad: un modelo de datos panel 2013-2020
Bibliographic record
Abstract
La presente investigación evalúa el impacto que tuvo la pandemia de COVID-19 en 2019-2020 en el mercado laboral de México, Estados Unidos y Canadá. Se consideran los tres sectores económicos (primario, secundario y terciario), y a su vez cada sector económico se divide en 3 grupos, Sexo, Edad y Nivel de Instrucción. Se propone un modelo de datos panel que considera 24 periodos que van del primer trimestre del 2013 al cuarto trimestre del 2018, además de los trimestres de 2019 y 2020. Los resultados empíricos encontrados sugieren que el menor nivel de desempleo para los tres países se dio en el cuarto trimestre de 2019 y el mayor nivel se dio en el segundo trimestre de 2020. Asimismo, el mayor nivel de desempleo durante el periodo de estudio (T1-2013 a T4-2020) se dio en Estados Unidos y el menor nivel se dio en Canadá. Por otro lado, previo a la pandemia de COVID-19, los sectores de la población con mayor nivel de desempleo en el sector primario fueron las mujeres, las personas con edad de 20 a 39 años y las personas con un nivel de educación básica; en el sector secundario fueron las personas con un nivel de educación menor a la básica; y en el sector terciario fueron los hombres, las personas con edad de 15 a 19 años y de 60 años y más, y las personas con un nivel de educación menor a la básica y de educación superior. De manera general, previo a la pandemia el sector con menor población desempleada fue el secundario y el de mayor fue el terciario. Asimismo, durante la pandemia de COVID-19, en el sector primario no se establece un grupo especifico que haya sido mayormente afectado en cuestión de desempleo; en el secundario los grupos con mayor nivel de desempleo fueron las personas con un nivel de educación menor a la básica, básica y media; y en el terciario las personas con mayor nivel de desempleo fueron los hombres, las personas con edad de 20 a 39 años y de 50 a 59 años, y las personas con un nivel de educación menor a la básica, básica y media. De manera general en Norte América, durante la pandemia de COVID-19, el sector con menor población desempleada fue el primario y el de mayor población desempleada fue el terciario. / This research assesses the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2019-2020 on the labor market in Mexico, the United States, and Canada. We consider the three economic sectors (primary, secondary and tertiary), and in turn each economic sector is divided into 3 groups, Gender, Age and Education Level. A panel data model is proposed that considers 24 periods ranging from the first quarter of 2013 to the fourth quarter of 2018, in addition to the quarters of 2019 and 2020. The empirical results found suggest that, for the three countries, the lowest level of unemployment occurred in the fourth quarter of 2019 and the highest level occurred in the second quarter of 2020. Likewise, the highest level of unemployment during the study period (Q1-2013 to Q4-2020) occurred in the United States and the lowest level occurred in Canada. On the other hand, prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, the sectors of the population with the highest level of unemployment in the primary sector were women, people between the ages of 20 and 39, and people with a basic educational level; in the secondary sector there were people with a level of education below basic; and in the tertiary sector they were men, people aged 15 to 19 and 60 years and over, and people with less than basic and higher education. In general, before the pandemic, the sector with the lowest unemployed population was the secondary and the sector with the largest level was the tertiary. Likewise, during the COVID-19 pandemic, in the primary sector there is no specific group that has been more affected in terms of unemployment; in secondary, the groups with the highest level of unemployment were people with a level of education below basic, basic and secondary; and in the tertiary, the people with the highest level of unemployment were men, people from 20 to 39 years old and from 50 to 59 years old, and people with an educational level below basic, basic and medium. In general, in North America, during the COVID-19 pandemic, the sector with the lowest unemployed population was the primary sector and the sector with the highest unemployed population was the tertiary sector.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.004 | 0.003 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.004 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; both teacher heads agree on what is shown here.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".