A theoretical model-based indirect estimation of the direct and cross price elasticities of demand for tourist goods and services
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Understanding tourist behavior, demand elasticities and the purchasing power of regular tourists visiting a destination is of great interest to the tourism industry for business strategy and to governments for tourism public policy. We propose a new method to empirically estimate own-price and cross-price elasticities of demand for tourist goods and services, as well as an innovative way to measure the average tourist’s marginal utility of income. In the tourism sector we consider that there are two relevant markets, one for tourist goods and services and the other for accommodation. These are separate but interrelated because of the feedback between demands for lodging and tourism products through a vertical relationship of complementarity. The optimal solution to the tourist choice problem consists of a primary demand for tourist services and a derived demand for overnight stays. We focus on obtaining robust estimates of the elasticities corresponding to the former by forecasting the latter. Most of the empirical modeling of tourism demand consists of ad hoc equations that are not directly attached to a specific theoretical framework. Our paper provides a solid characterization of the empirical linkages between the demands for tourist goods and services and accommodation using economic theory. This paper extends existing theory and also makes an important contribution to the empirics of tourism economics, with an application to the tourism database of Australia, Canada, Spain and the United States that quantifies demand elasticities and identities the socioeconomic status of their respective tourists.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".