Estudo prospectivo do mercado de trabalho dos fisioterapeutas até 2030
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Esta dissertação foi elaborada no âmbito do Mestrado em Políticas e Gestão do Ensino Superior. O principal objectivo foi o de encontrar um método que permitisse prever a evolução ideal de oferta de fisioterapeutas que tivesse a máxima consonância com a procura, pois desconhece-se a relação entre a formação dos fisioterapeutas e a evolução de procura de fisioterapia. De forma a colmatar a falta de dados em território nacional, recorreu-se a dados estatísticos disponíveis a nível internacional. Entende-se, pois, que a fisioterapia sendo transversal a nível internacional, que as necessidades da população, relativamente a cuidados de fisioterapia sejam semelhantes, apesar de reconhecer diferenças dada a diversidade existente entre os sistemas de saúde dos países que integram o estudo (Portugal, Nova Zelândia, Bélgica, Suécia, Estados Unidos da América, Reino Unido, Canadá, África do Sul e Alemanha). A evolução da procura é aqui definida por uma função logística. A calibração da curva logística foi efectuada com base nos dados estatísticos dos países incluídos no estudo. Portanto, admite-se que a procura por ano e o número de fisioterapeutas, seguem uma curva logística que tende para um determinado valor de saturação. O número previsível de fisioterapeutas/habitante vai representar a procura. Através dos rácios obtidos calculou-se o número de fisioterapeutas que se prevê serem necessários até 2030. Com os dados resultantes calculou-se o número de vagas necessárias para atingir o equilíbrio entre a oferta e a procura prevista para a população. Estimou-se que o rácio de saturação para os países que integram este estudo é de 2,59 fisioterapeutas por 1000 habitantes. Verificou-se que todos os países apresentam evoluções positivas porém a ritmos diferentes. Caso se mantenha o quadro actual do número de vagas 958 por ano, prevê-se um excesso “médio” de aproximadamente 500 graduados até 2030. Os resultados obtidos apresentam um cenário pouco promissor para os fisioterapeutas. É de crucial importância o seguimento da evolução da situação pelas entidades competentes. ABSTRACT: This dissertation was developed within the scope of the Masters Degree in Politics and Management of Higher Education. The main objective was to develop a method which permitted the projection of the ideal evolution of physiotherapist supply to satisfy demand. The relation between the formation of physiotherapists and the evolution of demand is unknown in Portugal. In response to the lack of data in Portugal, the author turned to international data. Once physiotherapy has the same underlying principles, defined by the WCPT, its supposed, that physiotherapy serves the same needs in population of different countries, in despite of recognising the differences of the health systems of the countries included in this study (Portugal, New Zealand, Belgium, Sweden, United States of America, United Kingdom, Canada, South Africa and Germany). The evolution of demand is defined here by a logistic function. The calibration of the logistic curve was made with the statistics of the countries included in this study. Therefore, it is admitted that the demand per year and the number of physiotherapists follow a logistic curve which aims at a determined saturation point. The projected ratio of physiotherapists per resident will represent demand. Based on the projected ratios, the number of physiotherapists needed up to 2030 was calculated. With these results, the number of numerus clausus where calculated to achieve an equilibrium between demand and supply. The saturation ratio of physiotherapists per 1000 residents calculated for the countries included in the study was of 2,59. All countries present positive evolutions, although different speeds of evolution. In Portugal, if the numerus clausus maintains at 958 per year, it’s calculated a average oversupply of approximately 500 physiotherapist per year. The results obtained, foresee a dark scenario for the employment of physiotherapists in Portugal. It is crucial to have the evolution of this situation monitorised by the competent entities.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.004 | 0.007 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.003 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.004 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.004 | 0.003 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.004 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.012 | 0.003 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".