Bibliographic record
Abstract
This thesis contains three essays spanning the fields of commodity currency prediction and house price sentiment. This first essay examines the long-run relationship between the real price of crude oil and the real exchange rate for Canada. The real Canadian exchange rate is found to be positively correlated with the real price of crude oil beginning in 2002-2003, which implies that in the long run, Canada’s real exchange rate varies with the level of the real oil price. Furthermore, the long-run adjustment of the real exchange rate is found to be via the nominal exchange rate, which implies that real exchange rate movements can forecast movements in the nominal exchange rate. The second essay studies households’ expectations of the house price growth and finds three dimensions of heterogeneity which are consistent with Sims' (2003) rational inattention theory, namely the heterogeneity in households' mean forecasts, in the perceived precision of households' forecasts, and in their dynamic forecasting rules. The third essay investigates whether households' expectations of future home price growths react to the information about past home price growths differently over different horizons. I find that households' expectations display an extrapolating pattern from the past growth over the short term (12-month) and a mean-reverting pattern over the longer term (5-year).
Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.
How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.006 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.003 | 0.003 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.026 | 0.007 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".