Life history of an endangered prairie butterfly: insights from an ex situ population of Poweshiek skipperling in Manitoba, Canada
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Species recovery plans benefit from a complete understanding of an organism’s biology. The Poweshiek skipperling, Oarisma poweshiek (Parker) (Lepidoptera: Hesperiidae), is an endangered butterfly native to tallgrass prairies in North America. Following rapid, range-wide population crashes, Poweshiek are now reared ex situ in Manitoba, Canada to augment the remaining wild population. Although this species has been the focus of research since their “Endangered” listing in 2014, there are knowledge gaps regarding Poweshiek skipperling life history. I measured head capsule widths of larvae of two Poweshiek cohorts to determine the overwintering instar. I analysed six years of ex situ data to assess trends in the timing of flight period, degree day accumulations, and protandry. I estimated this species’ lower developmental threshold using dates for developmental milestones. Head capsule measurements showed that Poweshiek typically overwinter in the fourth instar. Peak flight period varied among years by up to three weeks, while degree day accumulations were similar between years. I found evidence that this species is protandrous. An information theoretical approach using Akaike Information Criterion was used to assess lower developmental thresholds. This approach indicated different lower developmental thresholds for larvae and pupae; the AICc scores also demonstrated that larvae enter winter dormancy at different stages of development. These findings will inform conservation decision-making and may allow for greater accuracy in predicting the adult flight period.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".