Metropolitan Report - April 2008
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The United States economy is predicted to see its growth near zero in the first quarter of 2008 and then to recover slowly.Whether the economy experiences a recession in technical terms, the pain of a national economic slowdown is a reality.• With low levels of unemployment due to reduced population and the stimulus of the rebuilding effort, it is likely that New Orleans will be somewhat insulated from the national economic downturn.• In New Orleans, initial unemployment claims fell from an average of about 860 per week prior to Katrina to less than 400 per week in contrast to the sharp rise in claims at the national level during the first quarter of the year.• With Katrina, New Orleans lost about 30 years of population growth.The population is still recovering, but the rate has slowed from the quick rate of return right after the storm.The forecast is for population to average 1,174,000 in 2009.• Both population and employment are at about 86% of pre-Katrina values.Population and jobs are recovering at similar rates.• The New Orleans per capita income has moved above the national average, estimated to reach $40,200 from $30,600 before the storm.Increased earnings are a major source of this shift.• The construction industry is a chief force behind the activity in the New Orleans economy at this time.Though residential construction remains active, it was dwarfed in 2007 by non-residential building construction.Activity in 2008 started out strong in the non-building sector.• 21,000 jobs were added to New Orleans area employment in 2007, bringing the total number to 523,000.Jobs are expected to grow to 538,600 jobs by the end of 2009.While the recovery spending continues, the economy will continue to expand.However, the pace of growth is expected to slow.In the first year of the forecast, 8,000 jobs are predicted to be added; in the second year, 6,000 jobs.• Improvements are continuing in the tourism sector.With 7.1 million visitors to New Orleans in 2007, tourism has seen a stronger than expected movement towards recovery.However, higher costs in the industry and a national economic slowdown may slow the recovery in 2008.* The number of jobs and corresponding wages for establishments subject to unemployment insurance taxation.Notable exclusions are employees of very small businesses (under 4 employees), self-employed persons and salespersons on commission-only bases.Data current only though September 2007.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.004 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.004 | 0.002 |
| Open science | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Research integrity | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.361 | 0.316 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".