A lingering grudge in the face of a power transition; the French-Canadian sovereignty movement in perspective
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
I hypothesize that an individual that has experienced a power transition, as measured by income, will be more likely to challenge the status quo than one that has not. The hypothesis is tested by relying on a mathematical probability model and is then corroborated through a qualitative analysis. This analysis was accomplished by using a dataset that was collected in Québec during the time of the referendum; the final vote of each individual was contrasted with their relative income and dissatisfaction with the federation. While income alone will not bring about a secessionist vote, the increase in the likelihood of such a vote can be contrasted across income levels to show the effects hypothesized. The result being that when we control for dissatisfaction at a middle point, those voters with low income will be less likely to vote for secession than those with a high income at the same level of dissatisfaction. Again, I find that at middle levels of dissatisfaction "income" has a decisive role in determining an individual's vote in the referendum.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it