Protecting the UK power grid from geomagnetic hazard
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Geomagnetic storms, during which the Earth's magnetic field is disturbed, cause the beautiful natural phenomenon of the aurora borealis, or 'northern lights', but they also pose a threat to technological systems such as power transmission networks. For example, during the major geomagnetic storm of March 1989 the Canadian Hydro Québec power system failed. This power outage lasted for nine hours and affected six million people with damage and losses estimated at hundreds of millions of dollars. This massive disruption was due to equipment failure caused by induced electrical currents flowing in the power grid as a direct consequence of a severe geomagnetic disturbance. Operational mitigation is considered one of the best strategies to minimise this kind of risk. This poster describes recent developments towards a new, near-real-time, geomagnetic storm warning system based on spacecraft measurements of the solar wind, British Geological Survey (BGS) magnetic field measurements, and an integrated Earth-surface electric field and power grid network model. This system is being developed for use by Scottish Power plc, with support of the European Space Agency (ESA/ESTEC) to aid grid control management.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.030 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.003 | 0.003 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.002 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.007 | 0.010 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.014 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.705 | 0.008 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; both teacher heads agree on what is shown here.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".