Spatiotemporal changes at the northern limit of tree distribution in Quebec since 1970
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Forests are expected to undergo drastic changes in response to climatic warming. Northern tree species are of particular interest because species distribution models project important northward shifts in suitable climatic space and, consequently, increased climatic stress for species. Very few studies, however, have explored the interaction between recent warming and large-scale latitudinal distribution changes. The overall objective of this research was to determine whether tree range dynamics in Québec, Canada between 1970 and 2003 were consistent with the northward shifts in range limits predicted by climate change models. Latitudinal range shifts (LRS) and changes in site occupancy were quantified to reveal spatiotemporal signals of distribution change. Overall, five species of the 14 examined showed significant and consistent evidence for northward latitudinal shifts coinciding with increased occupancy of saplings in the northern part of their range. Most other species showed some evidence of northward or southward shifts, although trends were life stage specific and dependent on where and how range limits were calculated. Spatial differences between the distribution of trees and saplings within a single time period were generally not good indicators of observed temporal trends for saplings. Only long-term monitoring will tell whether these observed trends are just transient dynamics, will result in definitive northward shifts for most species or whether completely new patterns will emerge.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.004 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".