Dependencia financiera y ciclos de crecimiento en países latinoamericanos
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Resumen Este artículo sostiene que ha existido una notable similitud entre los ciclos externos a lo largo de la historia económica de los países latinoamericanos. El desarrollo hacia afuera -temprana denominación de la CEPAL del crecimiento -orientado hacia el exterior-, en términos del Banco Mundial- que predominó en la última parte del siglo XIX hasta 1930, fue desde el comienzo un modelo exportador y financiero, en el que la integración financiera en la economía mundial jugaba un rol central. Una política económica ortodoxa basada en la contracción fiscal, en el sostenimiento de una elevada tasa de interés y de incentivos al endeudamiento externo para sostener la convertibilidad y el libre flujo de capitales, fue la estrategia permanente de este modelo. Luego de un largo período de alejamiento de los mercados financieros mundiales, numerosos países latinoamericanos recibieron a lo largo de la década de 1970, y la mayoría de ellos en la de 1990 -luego del colapso de los años 80-, enormes volúmenes de capital financiero que provocaron, una vez más, un modelo y una estrategia similar de integración internacional. Abstract This paper argues that there was a remarkable similarity in the external cycles in Latin America s economic history. The -desarrollo hacia afuera-, the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean earlier designation for the World Bank is -outward-oriented- model, that prevailed in the last part of the nineteenth century until 1930, was from the beginning a financial-export model where financial integration to the world economy played a central role. An orthodox economic policy based on fiscal contraction, a high rate of interest, and incentives to external debt in order to sustain convertibility and free capital flows was a permanent strategy of this model. After a long period distant from the world financial markets, many Latin American countries received throughout the 1970s and especially during the 1990s, huge volumes of financial capital that brought about once again a similar pattern and strategy of international integration.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".