Economic Commentary 2023Q4 [Podcast] EP78
Bibliographic record
Abstract
FAI economist Dr Hannah Randolph is joined by our director Professor Mairi Spowage to talk about our latest Economic Commentary, which covers the fourth quarter of 2023. We talk about the current state of the economy and some reasons for optimism, then turn to an evaluation of where the Scottish economy is now in comparison to before the Covid-19 pandemic. We wrap up with some lingering thoughts on the Scottish Budget and what fiscal news to look out for in the near future. Read our latest Economic Commentary here: https://fraserofallander.org/publications/fai-economic-commentary-2023-q4/ Timestamps: (00:30) The state of the Scottish economy (03:20) Scotland’s pandemic recovery (07:40) Last thoughts on the Scottish Budget (09:50) Future fiscal events and funding decisions
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.003 | 0.030 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.005 | 0.002 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.008 | 0.003 |
| Open science | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Research integrity | 0.017 | 0.012 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.391 | 0.175 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".