Estimates of human exposure to antimicrobial-resistant foodborne pathogens and the resulting burden of illness
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Foodborne illnesses caused by nontyphoidal Salmonella (NTS) and Campylobacter pose significant challenges to Canada's public health and the economy.This study aims to estimate the economic costs and health burden of these infections, differentiating between antimicrobialresistant (AMR) and susceptible strains from 2015 to 2019.The study also assessed the impact of voluntary reductions in antimicrobial use in the chicken industry on these infections' incidence and economic burden.The study quantified the microeconomic and macroeconomic impacts on industrial output, GDP, and employment using Markov models combined with input-output analysis.The Markov model analyses indicated a downward trend in Salmonella cases, physician visits, hospitalizations, and deaths, alongside reductions in economic costs and Quality Adjusted Life Years (QALYs) losses.The predicted number of Salmonella cases decreased from 119,432 in 2015 to 93,199 in 2019, with costs dropping from $155 million to $131 million.For chickenassociated Salmonella cases, numbers decreased from 96,424 in 2015 to 67,097 in 2019, translating to a cost reduction from $122 million to $ 93 million.The total estimated annual costs of Campylobacter infections remained stable at approximately $137 million, with AMR strains consistently incurring higher costs and health impacts than susceptible strains.Macroeconomic analyses showed that in total industrial output decreased due to lost income from Salmonella infections declined from $36 million in 2015 to $32 million in 2019.Campylobacter infections resulted in higher output reductions ranging from $43 million to $46 million between 2017 and 2019.GDP losses in 2019 were estimated at $19 million for Salmonella and $27 million for Campylobacter infections.Employment losses were also greater for Campylobacter infections, with 214 jobs lost in 2019 compared to 149 jobs for Salmonella.The study highlights the importance of continued investment in public health interventions, improved surveillance systems, actions taken by producers, and public awareness campaigns to combat antimicrobial resistance and enhance food safety.iii RésuméLes maladies d'origine alimentaire causées par Salmonella non typhique et Campylobacter posent des défis importants pour la santé publique et l'économie au Canada.Cette étude visait à estimer les coûts économiques et le fardeau sanitaire de ces infections, en différenciant les souches résistantes aux antimicrobiens (RAM) et les souches sensibles de 2015 à 2019.De plus, l'étude a évalué l'impact des réductions volontaires de l'utilisation des antimicrobiens dans l'industrie avicole sur l'incidence et le fardeau économique de ces infections.En utilisant des modèles de Markov combinés à une analyse input-output, l'étude a quantifié les impacts microéconomiques et macroéconomiques sur la production industrielle, le PIB et l'emploi.Les analyses réalisées à partir du modèle de Markov ont révélé une tendance à la baisse du nombre de cas de Salmonella, des consultations médicales, des hospitalisations et des décès, s'accompagnant d'une diminution des coûts économiques et des pertes en années de vie ajustées sur la qualité (AVAQ).Le nombre total de cas de Salmonella est passé de 119 432 en 2015 à 93 199 en 2019, tandis que les coûts associés ont chuté de 155 millions de dollars à 131 millions de dollars.Concernant les infections à Salmonella liées au poulet, le nombre de cas est passé de 96 424 en 2015 à 67 097 en 2019, ce qui correspond à une réduction des coûts de 122 millions à 93 millions de dollars.En revanche, les coûts annuels totaux estimés pour les infections à Campylobacter sont demeurés stables, autour de 137 millions de dollars, les souches RAM entraînant systématiquement des coûts et des répercussions sanitaires plus élevés que les souches sensibles.Chapter 4. Results ..............................
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.004 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.005 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".