Fraser of Allander Institute : Economic Commentary [November 2008]
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Growth in both the Scottish and UK economies is slowing and in the second quarter a gap opened up between Scotland and the UK. The chained volume measure of GDP rose by 0.1% in Scotland in the quarter, while UK GDP rose by 0.7%. The latest Scottis h data contain considerable revisions from the previously published data, and one worry is whether the growth gap is genuine or will be revised away in subsequent quarters. However, despite what some prominent commentators have said about the latest GDP da ta providing a different picture from other Scottish data, we think that the data do tend to show an absolute and relative – to the UK – slowdown in the growth of the Scottish economy. Growth in the UK economy is slowing too. The preliminary estimate for U K GDP in the third quarter was 0.5%, with growth weakening from the 0.7% attained in the second quarter. Growth in the world economy is also forecast by the IMF to be weaker this year than last but is expected to pick up again next year.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.005 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.005 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".