Non-linear analytic prediction of IP addresses for supporting cyber attack detection and analysis
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Computer network systems are often subject to several types of attacks. For example the distributed Denial of Service (DDoS) attack introduces an excessive traffic load to a web server to make it unusable. A popular method for detecting attacks is to use the sequence of source IP addresses to detect possible anomalies. With the aim of predicting the next IP address, the Probability Density Function of the IP address sequence is estimated. Prediction of source IP address in the future access to the server is meant to detect anomalous requests. In this paper we consider the sequence of IP addresses as a numerical sequence and develop the nonlinear analysis of the numerical sequence. We used nonlinear analysis based on Volterra’s Kernels and Hammerstein’s models. The experiments carried out with datasets of source IP address sequences show that the prediction errors obtained with Hammerstein models are smaller than those obtained both with the Volterra Kernels and with the sequence clustering by means of the K-Means algorithm.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.004 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".