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Record W7075681961

Bayesian Treed Models

2000· article· en· W7075681961 on OpenAlex

Why this work is in the frame

A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.

fundA Canadian funder is recorded on the work.
no affNo Canadian affiliation: this work is invisible to an affiliation-only frame.
No Canadian affiliation. An affiliation-only frame, the usual design, would never have seen this work. It is one of the works that make the case for inverting the frame.

Bibliographic record

VenueScholarlyCommons (University of Pennsylvania) · 2000
Typearticle
Languageen
FieldPhysics and Astronomy
TopicTheoretical and Computational Physics
Canadian institutionsnot available
FundersNatural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of CanadaMitacsUniversity of ChicagoNational Science Foundation
KeywordsBayesian probabilityMarkov chain Monte CarloSimple (philosophy)Set (abstract data type)Markov chainParametric statisticsTree (set theory)Binary numberVariable-order Bayesian network
DOInot available

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

When simple parametric models such as linear regression fail to adequately approximate a function across an entire set of data, an alternative may be to consider a partition of the data, and then use a separate simple model within each subset of the partition. Such an alternative is provided by a treed model which uses a binary tree to identify such a partition. However, treed models go further than conventional trees (eg CART, C4.5) by tting models rather than simple means or proportions across the partition. In this paper, we propose a Bayesian approach for nding and tting parametric treed models, in particular focusing on Bayesian treed regression. The potential of this approach is illustrated by a cross-validation comparison of predictive performance with neural nets, MARS, and conventional trees on simulated and real data sets. Keywords: binary trees, Markov chain Monte Carlo, model selection, stochastic search. 1 Hugh Chipman is Associate Professor of Statistics...

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

Full frame distilled prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.000
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.000
Version: codex-gemma-dda1882f352aValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesInsufficient payload (model declined to judge)
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Theoretical or conceptual · Consensus signal: Theoretical or conceptual
GenreCandidate signal: Empirical · Consensus signal: Empirical
Teacher disagreement score0.373
Threshold uncertainty score0.994

Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0000.000
Bibliometrics0.0000.000
Science and technology studies0.0000.000
Scholarly communication0.0000.001
Open science0.0000.000
Research integrity0.0000.000
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0070.000

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.007
GPT teacher head0.177
Teacher spread0.170 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it