Spatially detailed tree-ring analysis throughout Canada
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
<b>Girardin, M. P., Guo, X. J., Campbell, E. M., Metsaranta, J., Arsenault, A., Alfaro Sanchez, R., Lamarque, L. J., & Isaac-Renton, M.</b> Under revision. Spatially detailed tree-ring analysis exposes widespread forest growth decline throughout Canada. <i>Canadian Journal of Forest Research</i>Environmental changes across Canada's forests highlight the need to understand long-term growth dynamics and identify areas of decline, essential for predicting ecosystem vulnerability to future vegetation shifts. Here, we analyzed basal area increment trends using tree-ring data from 4,410 sites spanning 1950–2018, organized into 647 1° × 1° grid cells. We then analyzed spatial patterns of these changes in relation to the long-term averages of mean annual temperature (MAT) and mean annual precipitation (MAP), the rates of change in MAT and MAP, and tree species dominance. Significant tree growth declines occurred in 42.3% of grid cells, while only 8.3% showed increases. Declines were concentrated in the boreal and montane forests of British Columbia, Alberta, and the southern Northwest Territories, with additional declines in southern Quebec, southern Labrador, and Ontario's boreal–mixedwood forest transition zones. The strength of growth declines was moderately dependent on MAT, with cooler regions having more negative trends for <i>Pseudotsuga menziesii</i>, <i>Picea engelmannii</i>, and <i>Picea glauca</i>. Additionally, <i>Abies lasiocarpa</i> and <i>Pseudotsuga menziesii</i> exhibited declining growth in areas of their geographic range experiencing the most rapid warming. These widespread growth declines could signal early stages of forest degradation and highlight strategically timed and targeted need for adaptive forest management.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.363 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it