Plumage Changes in Double-crested Cormorants (<i>Phalacrocorax\nauritus</i>) Within the Breeding Season: the Risks of Aging by Plumage
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
Scant attention has been given to the molting patterns of known-age Double-crested Cormorants (Phalacrocorax auritus). In general, subadult individuals are identified with a tan, buffy or mottled chest, and adults are identified with a black chest. While studying Double-crested Cormorant population dynamics in Ontario, Canada, with known-age birds, it was noted that the plumage of many (> 75%) breeding adults changed from black to heavily mottled during the course of the breeding season. No pattern with age was observed; plumage changed in equal proportions for all ages from 2-year-olds to 7-year-olds. A similar but reverse pattern has been observed with Double-crested Cormorants roosting at sites in the southeastern USA during fall migration. Whereas the majority of the roost had juvenile/subadult plumage in September, by mid-January the roost had shifted to 75% adult black plumage. The mechanism behind the plumage change is unknown, but extreme caution is advised when using plumage to age cormorants, especially during the winter months. By describing our observations with Doublecrested Cormorants, we hope to encourage future formal research on within-season plumage changes.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.003 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.002 | 0.006 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.004 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it