Unsustainable harvest of dugongs in Torres Strait and Cape \nYork (Australia) waters: two case studies using population \nviability analysis
Bibliographic record
Abstract
A significant proportion of the world’s remaining dugongs (Dugong dugon) occur off northern Australia where \nthey face various anthropogenic impacts. Here, we investigate the viability of two dugong meta-populations \nunder varying regimes of indigenous hunting. We construct population viability analyses (PVAs) using the \ncomputer package VORTEX and published estimates of population sizes and hunting rates. In Torres Strait \nbetween Cape York and New Guinea, our models predict severe and imminent reductions in dugong numbers. \nOur ‘optimistic’ and ‘pessimistic’ models suggest median times for quasi-extinction of 123 and 42 years, \nrespectively. Extinction probabilities are also high for eastern Cape York Peninsula. We demonstrate the \ninadequacy of reserves when harvest rates in neighbouring areas are high, identify the maximum harvest \nrates for meta-population stability and emphasise the urgent need for indigenous community involvement in \nmanagement to establish sustainable rates of dugong harvest in these regions.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.004 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".