Unsustainable harvest of dugongs in Torres Strait and Cape \nYork (Australia) waters: two case studies using population \nviability analysis
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
A significant proportion of the world’s remaining dugongs (Dugong dugon) occur off northern Australia where \nthey face various anthropogenic impacts. Here, we investigate the viability of two dugong meta-populations \nunder varying regimes of indigenous hunting. We construct population viability analyses (PVAs) using the \ncomputer package VORTEX and published estimates of population sizes and hunting rates. In Torres Strait \nbetween Cape York and New Guinea, our models predict severe and imminent reductions in dugong numbers. \nOur ‘optimistic’ and ‘pessimistic’ models suggest median times for quasi-extinction of 123 and 42 years, \nrespectively. Extinction probabilities are also high for eastern Cape York Peninsula. We demonstrate the \ninadequacy of reserves when harvest rates in neighbouring areas are high, identify the maximum harvest \nrates for meta-population stability and emphasise the urgent need for indigenous community involvement in \nmanagement to establish sustainable rates of dugong harvest in these regions.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.003 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.004 | 0.007 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.002 | 0.006 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it